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Oilsands Report

 

Download Prospectus, including Table of Contents, Table of Figures and Table of Tables

The report is now available for $997 (Hardcopy).

Western Canada holds vast oilsands deposits that are economically recoverable at oil prices between $30/bbl and $40/bbl, and the use of gasification in the production of bituminous oilsands is poised for rapid expansion. The EIA estimates that operators will produce some 3.5 million b/d of synthetic crude oil by 2025, up from 1.1 million b/d currently. Other estimates place the 2025 estimate closer to 5.0 million b/d. We anticipate that some C$4 billion will be spent on gasification systems over the next five years. We also expect the winners of the technology race to subsequently enjoy revenues in the range of C$1-2 billion annually. Five technology firms are aggressively pushing gasification technologies, and others are in the wings.

A primary factor that could accelerate gasification technology and infrastructure development is geopolitical instability and/or the desire of importing nations, like the United States, to achieve less dependence on foreign energy suppliers. World war involving Iran, the Arabian Peninsula, Venezuela and/or Africa would motivate North American investors to accelerate development of indigenous coal and oilsands. Barring these scenarios, however, several more immediate challenges, such as construction bottlenecks, labor shortages and constrained pipeline takeaway capacity, could decelerate the rate of gasification commercialization in the short to medium term.

This study examines all of the technological, economic, geopolitical and logistical drivers that will influence development of the Canadian oilsands and provides the reader with a wealth of information on the status of project developments, operators, technology providers, markets and more.

 
Table of Contents
I Introduction
  A. Gasification systems needed to replace expensive natural gas
  B. More value to producers that gasify
  C. Growing number of gasification projects
  D. Bright future for Canadian oilsands and gasification
II. Oilsands: Alberta's Black Gold
  A. What are oilsands?
  B. What is bitumen?
  C. Mining bitumen
  D. Open pits
  E. Steam-assisted gravity drainage
  F. Bitumen blends
  G. Impact on Canadian economy
III. Upgrading: Building Refineries in the Field
  A. Bitumen extraction and upgrading
  B. Coking
  C. Distillation
  D. Catalytic conversion
  E. Hydrotreating
IV. Gasification: A Part of Secondary Upgrading
  A. Four advantages to gasification
  B. Gasification project profile 1: Long Lake almost eliminates natural gas
  C. Gasification project profile 2: Synenco Energy's Northern Lights project will locate its upgrading facility in the Edmonton area
  D. Gasification project profile 3: North West Upgrading will gasify hydrocracker residue
  E. Gasification project profile 4: Suncor Energy, the oldest SCO producer, focuses on Athabasca
  F. Gasification project profile 5: PRO Upgrading starts work on Bluesky upgrader
V. Connecting Upstream to Downstream Refining and Markets
  A. Southbound pipelines
  B. Westward to Far East markets
VI. Refining & Marketing
  A. Flint Hills Resources
  B. Suncor's Commerce City refinery
  C. Expanding markets
VII. Risks and Challenges
  A. Spiraling construction costs
  B. High capex extends to gasifiers: CNR's Horizon - C$1.4 billion
  C. Labor shortages
  D. Pipeline bottlenecks
  E. Other delays
  F. Conclusions drawn from risks & challenges
VIII. Beyond Canada
  A. Critical investment being made in R&D
  B. Heavy-oil regions
Appendix 1: Oilsands Project Profiles
Appendix 2: Gasification Technology Profiles
     
     
 
Table of Figures
Figure 1-1: Without syngas from gasification, roughly $15/bbl is required for natural gas when gas can be purchased for $7.50/MMBtu. Nearly two MMBtu is required per barrel of upgraded oil.
Figure 2-1: The three Alberta oilsands deposits. Courtesy of Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers.
Figure 2-2: Northern Alberta’s oilsands are thought to contain nearly 200 billion barrels of bitumen. Photo by Suncor Energy Inc.
Figure 2-3: Bitumen is extracted from oilsands and can be upgraded into synthetic crude oil.
Figure 2-4: Suncor’s oilsand is mined using shovels with buckets that hold 100 metric tons (mt), loading 240- to 380-mt trucks. The mine delivers about 500,000 mt of oilsand per day to preparation plants. Photo courtesy of Suncor.
Figure 2-5: The in-situ steam-assisted gravity-drainage (SAGD) process is used for deposits deeper than 225 ft by drilling two wells – one for steam injection to melt the bitumen from the deposit and the other for bitumen recovery. CAPP estimates 80% of Canada’s oilsands production will require SAGD. Source: Deer Creek Energy.
Figure 2-6: Suncor’s in-situ project is located on leases known as “Firebag”. The Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) technology uses underground wells to inject steam into the oilsands deposits and collect the bitumen released by the heat. Photo courtesy of Suncor.
Figure 2-7: At the Suncor oilsands plant, hydro-transport pipelines are used to deliver the crushed and sized ore to the primary extraction facility where the oilsands are washed with warm water to separate 90+% of the bitumen from the sand and clay. The bitumen floats to the top of large settlement tanks, where it is skimmed from the surface (see Figure 3-2). Photo courtesy of Suncor.
Figure 2-8: Over the coming decades, Canada is expected to become one of the world’s three largest petroleum exporters, joining the ranks of Saudi Arabia and Russia. As gasification applications grow, synbit and upgraded light-synthetic blends will comprise ever-greater proportions of Canada’s exports. Sources: Jacobs Engineering and the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP).
Figure 2-9: PADD III access for bitumen blends (LLB) opened up considerable demand from US refining, reducing the discount bitumen receives relative to West Texas Intermediate (WTI). Chart compliments of Canadian Natural Resources Limited.
Figure 2-10: The Canadian dollar is steadily climbing against the US greenback, largely as a result of investment in energy. Source: Bank of Canada.
Figure 3-1: Canadian producers can capture almost 90% of the value of their bitumen if they establish extensive upgrading capabilities in the field. Source: Jacobs Consulting, PetroCanada.
Figure 3-2: Bitumen floats to the top in giant separation cells filled with warm water. Courtesy of Suncor.
Figure 3-3: Bitumen and associated heavy oils contain greater percentages of long-chain carbon molecules than conventional crude oils like WTI, presenting challenges to refineries. This is why converting the bitumen into SCO, which eliminates the residue and triples the amount of kerosene and middle distillate, is so valuable.
Figure 3-4: At the Suncor oilsands plant, bitumen is heated and sent to drums where petroleum coke, the heavy bottom material, is removed. Petroleum coke, similar to coal, is used as a fuel source for the utilities plant. Photo courtesy Suncor.
Figure 3-5: A catalytic cracking unit consists of one or more tall, thick-walled reactors with furnaces, heat exchangers and other vessels. Photo courtesy of Canadian Natural Resources Ltd.
Figure 3-6: The purpose of this type of unit is to reduce the sulfur and nitrogen content of the feed gas and improve the combustion characteristics of the transportation fuels. In addition to sulfur and nitrogen removal, hydrotreating reduces the amount of aromatic hydrocarbons that can give jet kerosene a poor smoke point and diesel fuel a poor cetane number. Diagram courtesy of www.lloydminsterheavyoil.com.
Figure 3-7: Diagram of Long Lake bitumen extraction and upgrading plan. Courtesy of OPTICanada.
Figure 4-1: Reactor destined for Long Lake. Photo courtesy of OPTICanada/Nexen.
Figure 4-2: Reactors in place at Long Lake. Photo courtesy of OPTICanada/Nexen.
Figure 4-3: OPTI Canada is making significant investments in upgrading infrastructure for their Long Lake projects, such as this gasifier near Fort McMurray. Photo compliments of OPTI Canada.
Figure 4-4: Synenco Energy’s Northern Lights project, which will employ GE’s gasification process, aims to produce syngas from petcoke and export surplus cogen power. GE licenses its gasification technology for oilsands as well as IGCC projects. Key elements of the technology are gasification integration in the areas of air separation, acid-gas removal, sulfur recovery and H2 purification and recycling. Source: GE.
Figure 4-5: Northwest Upgrading’s process-flow diagram. Courtesy of Northwest Upgrading.
Figure 4-6: Heavy hauler unloading into sizer at the Suncor oilsands plant, where crushers and sizers prepare the ore for delivery to primary extraction via hydro-transport pipelines.
Figure 4-7: At the Suncor oilsands plant, bitumen is heated and sent to drums where petroleum coke, the heavy bottom material, is removed. Petroleum coke, similar to coal, is used as a fuel source for the utilities plant.
Figure 4-8: Suncor's oilsands plant is located north of Fort McMurray in Alberta. The company’s vision is to more than double oilsands production to over half a million barrels per day in the next decade. Courtesy of Suncor.
Figure 4-9: Peace River Oilsands Upgrading Map. Courtesy of PRO Upgrading.
Figure 5-1: Expanding production from Alberta’s oilsands is reconfiguring North America’s oil pipelines as shippers and markets connect. Map Courtesy of Canadian Natural Resources, Ltd.
Figure 5-2: Enbridge Inc. is has announced $13 billion in new pipeline projects, like this one near Hardisty, AB. Photo courtesy of Enbridge.
Figure 5-3: A new proposed Enbridge pipeline would connect Chicago directly to Beaumont, sending bitumen directly to the heart of heavy-oil refining. Map courtesy of Enbridge.
Figure 5-4 For each major oilsands project, pipeline capacity will need to be opened southward or westward. This map illustrates the pipelines that will serve the 140,000-b/d Long Lake Project south of Fort McMurray.
Figure 5-5: Enbridge intends to loop its Gateway pipeline to backhaul diluent from Kitimat refineries to oilsands producers. Map courtesy of Enbridge.
Figure 5-6: Kinder Morgan Canada’s Trans Mountain system is being expanded from 225,000 b/d to 260,000 b/d and to 300,000 b/d by 2008. Map courtesy of Terasen Pipelines.
Figure 6-1: Canadian oilsands are connected to some 80 refining operations across North America, and access is expanding: 80,000-b/d of US Gulf Coast refining was opened via pipeline in early 2006. Source: Jacobs Consulting, Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers.
Figure 6-2: Flynt Hills Resources’ 280,000-b/d Pine Bend refinery in Rosemont, MN, is one of the main processors of heavy crude from Canada. Photo courtesy of Flynt Hills Resources.
Figure 6-3: Suncor’s Commerce City, CO, refinery, which the company purchased from Valero in 2005, is the largest refining operation in the Rocky Mountain region, with a capacity of 90,000 b/d, and provides a vital link between Canadian oilsands and Rocky Mountain markets Photo courtesy of Suncor.
Figure 6-4: BP’s Whiting, IN, refinery is one of the United States’ largest and oldest refineries, dating back to John D. Rockefeller and Standard Oil. Courtesy of BP.
Figure 7-1: Canada’s National Energy Board predicts bitumen production will range between 1.9 million b/d and 4.5 million b/d by 2015. In 1995, the US DOE/EIA predicted syncrude production would not reach 1.0 million b/d by 2020, but this was reached in 2004. Chart: National Energy Board.
Figure 7-2: CNR’s Horizon project is the world’s fourth largest oil development with six billion barrels recoverable. Graphic courtesy of CNR.
Figure 7-3: Canada’s oilsands can be grouped into three major regions: Athabasca, the largest, Peace River, the least developed, and Cold Lake. The nation is estimated to have a reserve-to-production (RP) ratio of 433 years. Its 2.5 trillion bbl of in-place bitumen is estimated to be 81% of the world total. About 315 billion bbl of bitumen are considered viable under current economic and technological conditions. Map courtesy of the Wall Street Journal, PennWell MAPSearch, Alberta Energy and Utilities Board, Alberta Geological Survey, and the US Geological Survey.
Figure 7-4: Competition for labor is so fierce that CNR flies in planeloads of workers to get its workforce up to 2,500 and ultimately between 5,000 and 6,000 by mid-2007. Photo courtesy of CNR.
Figure 7-5: More than two-thirds of Alberta’s population lives in the southern half of the province, too far from the oilsands production region to commute to project sites. See Table 7-2 for corresponding population stats.
Figure 7-6: Demand for raw materials has risen sharply as world construction projects have grown. Source: Zeus Energy Consulting Group.
Figure 7-7: Alberta’s government has collected C$846 million thus far in 2006, up from just C$433 million in all of 2005. Map courtesy of Synenco.
 
Table of Tables
Table 1-1: Some 21 oilsands projects have been announced in the three deposits. Courtesy of Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers.
Table 1-2: Gasification Projects
Table 2-1: Inventory of Major Alberta Capital Projects Sorted by Expenditure, May 2006
Table 7-1: Challenges Facing Developers of Canada's Oilsands
Table 7-2: Alberta Population Stats
 


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